Probability Dashboard
Tournament Probabilities
Estimated probability of advancing to each round, based on historical pattern matching and composite metrics.
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68 teams
| # | Team ↕ | Seed ↕ | Rating | R32 ↕ | S16 ↕ | E8 ↕ | F4 ↕ | Champ ↕ | Winner ↕ | Seed Edge ↕ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DukeACC | 1 | 98.3 | 99.4% | 85.8% | 64.4% | 40.6% | 23.1% | 14.5% | 0 |
| 2 | MichiganB10 | 1 | 98.2 | 99.4% | 85.8% | 64.4% | 40.6% | 23.1% | 14.5% | 0 |
| 3 | ArizonaB12 | 1 | 97.8 | 99.4% | 85.8% | 64.4% | 40.6% | 23.1% | 14.5% | 0 |
| 4 | FloridaSEC | 2 | 97.5 | 95.9% | 75.9% | 53.9% | 31.8% | 17.0% | 10.1% | -1 |
| 5 | HoustonB12 | 2 | 97.2 | 95.9% | 75.9% | 53.9% | 31.8% | 17.0% | 10.1% | -1 |
| 6 | IllinoisB10 | 2 | 97.1 | 95.9% | 75.9% | 53.9% | 31.8% | 17.0% | 10.1% | -1 |
| 7 | ConnecticutBE | 1 | 95.8 | 99.4% | 85.8% | 64.4% | 40.6% | 23.1% | 14.5% | 0 |
| 8 | PurdueB10 | 2 | 95.7 | 95.9% | 75.9% | 53.9% | 31.8% | 17.0% | 8.0% | -1 |
| 9 | Iowa St.B12 | 3 | 95.3 | 88.5% | 63.7% | 40.1% | 21.0% | 9.9% | 4.7% | -1 |
| 10 | Texas TechB12 | 4 | 95 | 84.9% | 59.4% | 34.8% | 17.8% | 7.7% | 3.9% | -2 |
| 11 | Michigan St.B10 | 3 | 94.6 | 88.5% | 63.7% | 40.1% | 21.0% | 9.9% | 4.7% | -1 |
| 12 | TennesseeSEC | 5 | 94.6 | 75.9% | 49.5% | 29.1% | 14.3% | 6.3% | 3.2% | -3 |
| 13 | GonzagaWCC | 3 | 94.3 | 88.5% | 63.7% | 40.1% | 21.0% | 9.9% | 4.7% | -1 |
| 14 | LouisvilleACC | 6 | 94 | 75.3% | 47.7% | 26.7% | 13.4% | 5.9% | 3.1% | -4 |
| 15 | KansasB12 | 4 | 93.7 | 84.9% | 59.4% | 34.8% | 17.8% | 7.7% | 3.9% | -2 |
| 16 | VirginiaACC | 3 | 93.6 | 88.5% | 63.7% | 40.1% | 21.0% | 9.9% | 4.7% | -1 |
| 17 | NebraskaB10 | 4 | 93.6 | 84.9% | 59.4% | 34.8% | 17.8% | 7.7% | 3.9% | -2 |
| 18 | VanderbiltSEC | 5 | 93.5 | 75.9% | 49.5% | 29.1% | 14.3% | 6.3% | 3.2% | -3 |
| 19 | AlabamaSEC | 4 | 93.5 | 84.9% | 59.4% | 34.8% | 17.8% | 7.7% | 3.9% | -2 |
| 20 | ArkansasSEC | 5 | 93.3 | 75.9% | 49.5% | 29.1% | 14.3% | 6.3% | 3.2% | -3 |
| 21 | St. John'sBE | 6 | 92.7 | 75.3% | 47.7% | 26.7% | 13.4% | 5.9% | 3.1% | -4 |
| 22 | WisconsinB10 | 6 | 91.7 | 72.0% | 44.0% | 22.2% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 1.5% | -3 |
| 23 | IowaB10 | 8 | 91 | 72.0% | 37.1% | 19.8% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 1.4% | -5 |
| 24 | Saint Mary'sWCC | 7 | 91 | 72.0% | 41.6% | 21.0% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% | -4 |
| 25 | North CarolinaACC | 5 | 90.8 | 72.5% | 45.8% | 24.6% | 11.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% | -2 |
| 26 | Ohio St.B10 | 10 | 90.5 | 72.0% | 30.8% | 14.8% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 1.0% | -6 |
| 27 | CincinnatiB12 | 11 | 90 | 72.0% | 29.2% | 13.9% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | -7 |
| 28 | IndianaB10 | 11 | 89.9 | 72.0% | 29.2% | 13.9% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | -7 |
| 29 | ClemsonACC | 8 | 89.7 | 72.0% | 34.2% | 16.3% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | -4 |
| 30 | UCLAB10 | 8 | 89.5 | 72.0% | 34.2% | 16.3% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | -4 |
| 31 | Santa ClaraWCC | 11 | 89.1 | 72.0% | 29.2% | 13.9% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | -7 |
| 32 | Texas A&MSEC | 9 | 89 | 72.0% | 34.1% | 16.3% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | -5 |
| 33 | KentuckySEC | 6 | 88.9 | 69.5% | 41.1% | 18.6% | 7.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | -2 |
| 34 | Saint LouisA10 | 8 | 88.8 | 61.5% | 34.2% | 16.3% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | -4 |
| 35 | GeorgiaSEC | 7 | 88.7 | 68.8% | 38.8% | 17.4% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | -3 |
| 36 | VillanovaBE | 9 | 88.6 | 61.8% | 34.1% | 16.3% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | -5 |
| 37 | Miami FLACC | 7 | 88.6 | 68.8% | 38.8% | 17.4% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | -3 |
| 38 | N.C. StateACC | 9 | 88.5 | 55.8% | 27.5% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | -4 |
| 39 | Utah St.MWC | 10 | 88.4 | 48.5% | 24.2% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | -5 |
| 40 | BYUB12 | 7 | 87.5 | 62.8% | 32.2% | 13.6% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | -2 |
| 41 | TexasSEC | 10 | 87.1 | 48.5% | 24.2% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | -5 |
| 42 | SMUACC | 11 | 86.5 | 47.4% | 21.4% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | -5 |
| 43 | MissouriSEC | 11 | 85.4 | 47.4% | 21.4% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | -5 |
| 44 | UCFB12 | 10 | 83 | 47.6% | 21.5% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | -3 |
| 45 | TCUB12 | 9 | 82.3 | 54.9% | 24.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | -2 |
| 46 | South FloridaAmer | 12 | 81.7 | 46.3% | 19.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | -5 |
| 47 | BelmontMVC | 12 | 77.9 | 41.7% | 15.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | -3 |
| 48 | McNeese St.Slnd | 12 | 74.2 | 36.8% | 13.7% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | -2 |
| 49 | Miami OHMAC | 11 | 73.8 | 37.4% | 14.6% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | -1 |
| 50 | Utah ValleyWAC | 13 | 72.2 | 27.8% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | -3 |
| 51 | High PointBSth | 13 | 70.1 | 27.8% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | -3 |
| 52 | YaleIvy | 12 | 69.4 | 36.3% | 12.6% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | -1 |
| 53 | HawaiiBW | 14 | 64.1 | 23.7% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | -3 |
| 54 | LibertyCUSA | 13 | 62 | 26.9% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% | -1 |
| 55 | UNC WilmingtonCAA | 13 | 61.8 | 26.9% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% | -1 |
| 56 | North Dakota St.Sum | 14 | 61.6 | 23.3% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% | -2 |
| 57 | Northern ColoradoBSky | 15 | 57.4 | 17.9% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -3 |
| 58 | NavyPat | 14 | 54 | 17.3% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -1 |
| 59 | Austin PeayASun | 15 | 53.4 | 11.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -2 |
| 60 | Robert MorrisHorz | 15 | 52.3 | 11.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -2 |
| 61 | TroySB | 14 | 52 | 17.3% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -1 |
| 62 | MerrimackMAAC | 16 | 50.1 | 9.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -3 |
| 63 | East Tennessee St.SC | 15 | 48.9 | 11.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -2 |
| 64 | UMBCAE | 16 | 43.4 | 6.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -2 |
| 65 | HowardMEAC | 16 | 43 | 6.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -2 |
| 66 | Bethune CookmanSWAC | 16 | 39.3 | 6.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -2 |
| 67 | Tennessee St.OVC | 16 | 34.8 | 6.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -2 |
| 68 | LIUNEC | 16 | 34.4 | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -1 |
Historical Context
Seed Performance Since 1985
Historical probability of each seed reaching each round across 41 tournaments.
| Seed | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | Final | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99% | 79% | 58% | 40% | 24% | 16% |
| 2 | 94% | 57% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 3% |
| 3 | 85% | 45% | 21% | 10% | 7% | 2% |
| 4 | 79% | 34% | 17% | 9% | 2% | 1% |
| 5 | 65% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 1% | - |
| 6 | 63% | 19% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 | 60% | 13% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 8 | 49% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 2% | <1% |
| 9 | 51% | 6% | 2% | 1% | - | - |
| 10 | 39% | 8% | 3% | <1% | - | - |
| 11 | 38% | 10% | 2% | 4% | - | - |
| 12 | 35% | 6% | 1% | - | - | - |
| 13 | 21% | 2% | - | - | - | - |
| 14 | 15% | 1% | - | - | - | - |
| 15 | 7% | 2% | - | - | - | - |
| 16 | 1% | - | - | - | - | - |